SMM Nickel News on August 1:
Macro News:
(1) As the deadline for "reciprocal tariff" approaches on August 1, US President Trump signed an executive order on Thursday local time, specifying the tariff rates to be imposed on multiple countries, implementing a differentiated tariff policy for global trading partners. The "reciprocal tariff" rates imposed on various countries and regions range from 10% to 41%. The US tariff rate on Canada has been increased from 25% to 35%.
(2) Jiang Yi, Director of the Policy Research Office and Spokesperson of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), stated that the third batch of 69 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to support the trade-in policy for consumer goods has been fully allocated this year. The fourth batch of 69 billion yuan will be allocated as planned in October, completing the allocation plan of 300 billion yuan for this year.
Spot Market:
Today, the SMM #1 refined nickel price ranges from 119,300 to 122,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 120,650 yuan/mt, a decrease of 600 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premiums for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel range from 2,200 to 2,300 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,250 yuan/mt, an increase of 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premiums and discounts for electrodeposited nickel from mainstream domestic brands range from -200 to 300 yuan/mt.
Futures Market:
The most-traded SHFE nickel 2509 contract was in the doldrums today, with prices continuing to fall after the opening. As of the midday session, the SHFE nickel price was quoted at 119,550 yuan/mt, a decrease of 0.77%.
The US Fed maintained interest rates unchanged at its July interest rate meeting, but there were internal divisions over the timing of interest rate cuts. Powell stated that "it is too early to judge a September interest rate cut," and the US dollar index strengthened. Meanwhile, the short-term stimulus effect of China's "anti-rat race" competition policy on industrial products has weakened. The Political Bureau meeting emphasized "market-oriented and rule-of-law-based governance of overcapacity." The combined macro environment, both domestic and international, has driven nickel prices downward. It is expected that nickel prices will return to the logic of fundamental overcapacity in the future, with the price center continuing to move lower.
